Schedule for: 22w5201 - Climate Change Scenarios and Financial Risk

Each participants gives a quick introduction of who they are, their research, and their interest in the workshop.

This talk will review our understanding of observed and projected changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme climate and weather events, and consider some of the challenges in estimating the likelihood of rare, high impact events that produce large impacts and consequently, high financial risk.

Two 10 minute introductory talks with 3 minutes for questions and 2 minutes for change-overs. These talks are intended to introduce each researcher attending the meeting.

Simultaneous concurrence of extreme values across multiple climate variables can result in large societal and environmental impacts. Therefore, there is growing interest in understanding these concurrent extremes. In many applications, not only the frequency but also the magnitude of concurrent extremes are of interest. One way to approach this problem is to study the distribution of one climate variable given that another is extreme. We develop a statistical framework for estimating bivariate concurrent extremes via a conditional approach, where univariate extreme value modeling is combined with dependence modeling of the conditional tail distribution using techniques from quantile regression and extreme value analysis to quantify concurrent extremes. We focus on the distribution of daily wind speed conditioned on daily precipitation taking its seasonal maximum. The Canadian Regional Climate Model large ensemble is used to assess the performance of the proposed framework both via a simulation study with a specified dependence structure and via an analysis of the climate model-simulated dependence structure.

Location: https://www.google.ca/maps/place/Quail+Ridge+Linear+Park/@49.9532746,-119.4069055,15.02z/data=!4m5!3m4!1s0x537ded8f5c7ce671:0x69373a2803fc0d77!8m2!3d49.9564995!4d-119.4070147

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reported that wildfires are the top climate change risk facing Canada. BC is living this reality with three record setting fire seasons occurring in the past five years. Modelling how management interventions are expected to modify future risks and emissions from wildfires is critical to informing effective climate change action. This presentation summarizes initiatives BC Wildfire Service is currently supporting and would like to support.

Six 10 minute introductory talks with 3 minutes for questions and 2 minutes for change-overs. These talks are intended to introduce each researcher attending the meeting.

In this overview presentation, we will review some established and emerging methods for characterizing biophysical aspects of wildfires, with a focus on fuel hazard mapping and ignition exposure assessment. Key considerations for merging wildfire processes into risk assessment frameworks will be discussed.

Trail-head location: https://www.google.ca/maps/place/Spion+Kop+Trail+Head/@50.081459,-119.4331202,15.19z/data=!4m5!3m4!1s0x537de5bee54e47c7:0xdf9065db53a35503!8m2!3d50.0789!4d-119.41832

In this talk, I will review methods from extreme value analysis with applications to risk assessment in finance. It covers three main methodological paradigms: the classical framework for independent and identically distributed data with application to risk estimation for market and operational loss data, the multivariate framework for cross-sectional dependent data with application to systemic risk and reverse stress testing, and the methods for stationary serially dependent data applied to dynamic risk management.

Canadians are experiencing rising damage from flooding, wildfire and severe weather. We are not adapted to current climate-related risks and much is needed to adapt to increasing frequency and severity of hazards as a result of climate change. ICLR seeks to apply findings about resilience best practices to achieve three goals. First more resilient existing buildings. Second resilient new construction. And third resilience in recovery.

Four 10 minute introductory talks with 3 minutes for questions and 2 minutes for change-overs. These talks are intended to introduce each researcher attending the meeting.

We will provide further details of things to do around Kelowna, and the Okanagan Valley. We will then reconvene at a local winery, with details shown in the next event on the schedule.

We will be visiting the St. Hubertus & Oak Bay Estate Winery in the Lower Mission area of Kelowna. This family winery and home burned down in the 2003 Okanagan Mountain Park Fire and were rebuilt. Melted wine bottles from this winery are in an exhibit at the Laurel Packinghouse museum in downtown Kelowna. The tasting fee will be waived. Winery: http://st-hubertus.bc.ca/ Wildfire: https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/okanagan-winery-10-years-after-mountain-park-fire-1.1392120 Location: https://www.google.com/maps?ll=49.796194,-119.53111&z=10&t=m&hl=en-CA&gl=US&mapclient=embed&q=5205+Lakeshore+Rd+Kelowna,+BC+V1W+4J1

BC Wildfire Service has graciously invited us to tour the White Rock Lake fire. More detail will be provided during the workshop. Details on the fire can be found here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/White_Rock_Lake_fire

The transition to a low-carbon economy requires significant action and investment. These policy actions can have an impact on the financial health of customers. These risks are known as the “transition risk” channel, through which climate risk can manifest in the financial system. In this talk, I will describe how we are incorporating transition risk into customer level assessments of probability of default, and loan losses.

Four 10 minute introductory talks with 3 minutes for questions and 2 minutes for change-overs. These talks are intended to introduce each researcher attending the meeting.